Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Garrett HampsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Kieboom singled to right, Ruiz scored.8–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 11Hampson homered to left center (420 feet), Berti scored.8–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 11Berti singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Berti to second, De La Cruz thrown out at third.6–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 11De La Cruz singled to center, Burger scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Thomas singled to center, Abrams scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 10Bell grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Edwards scored, Arraez out at third.4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Blankenhorn homered to center (423 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Thomas homered to left (430 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Chisholm Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to first, Arraez scored, Bell out at second.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Burger hit sacrifice fly to center, Stallings scored, Arraez to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +5 Elo | WSH 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 28–3726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 8–2 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.