Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- David PeraltaBatting2-3
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Muncy hit sacrifice fly to center, Betts scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 10Arcia homered to left center (427 feet), Lopez scored and Murphy scored.4–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Smith grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Barnes scored, Freeman out at second, Betts to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to center (454 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Fair odds
- LAD -105
- ATL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +2 Elo | ATL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3045–23 | Road vs home | 46–231st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.