Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-3
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Muncy singled to right, Taylor scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Muncy doubled to right, Barnes scored and Freeman scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Heyward homered to center (383 feet), Peralta scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Freeman homered to right (440 feet), Betts scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- ARI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Ryan Pepiot (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +74 Elo | LAD 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 45–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 5–7 LAD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.