Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías grounded into fielder's choice to second, Devers scored, Casas safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Betts, Duvall to third.5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 8Betts singled to center, Taylor scored, Peralta to third.5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Turner singled to left, Wong scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6McGuire singled to center, Story scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 6Duvall homered to left center (353 feet), Turner scored and Refsnyder scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Muncy homered to right center (418 feet), Smith scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Turner homered to left (395 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rosario scored, Outman out at second.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Verdugo homered to right center (380 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Rosario reached on infield single to third, Betts scored, Freeman to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -103
- BOS +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.4 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −10 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +38 Elo | LAD 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3036–27 | Road vs home | 35–2911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.