Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz homered to right (343 feet).4–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 8McCormick homered to left (352 feet).4–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 6Yoshida grounded out to first, Urías scored, Devers to second, Verdugo to third.4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 4McCormick homered to left (368 feet), Bregman scored and Alvarez scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 2Alvarez singled to center, Bregman scored, Tucker to third.3–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 2Bregman reached on infield single to shortstop, Maldonado scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Maldonado doubled to left, Meyers scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 33–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Altuve scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 13th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 33–2915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.