Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wong homered to right (348 feet), Abreu scored.17–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 117–1
- 9Abreu doubled to right, Yoshida scored.15–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play15–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul15–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 115–1
- 9Reyes hit sacrifice fly to center, Refsnyder scored.14–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–1
- 8Devers singled to center, Wong scored, Verdugo to third.13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–1
- 8Abreu singled to right, Reyes scored.12–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 212–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 112–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–1
- 5Bregman singled to right, Dubón scored.11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 3Reyes grounded out to shortstop, Turner scored, Yoshida to second, Duvall to third.11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 3Yoshida singled to right, Devers scored, Duvall to second, Turner to third.10–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 3Duvall walked, Verdugo scored, Turner to second, Devers to third.9–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 49–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 39–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 29–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 3Turner hit by pitch, Wong scored, Devers to second, Verdugo to third.8–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 28–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 3Verdugo singled to right, Urías scored, Wong to second.7–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -116
- BOS +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +12 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +38 Elo | HOU 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–32 | Road vs home | 35–3014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.