Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Astros- Martin MaldonadoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Diaz singled to right, Tucker scored, McCormick to second.7–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 10Duvall homered to left (371 feet), Devers scored and Casas scored.7–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 5Abreu grounded out to first, Duvall scored, Story to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Story singled to center, Turner scored, Duvall to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3J. Abreu doubled to left, Bregman scored, Diaz to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Casas singled to center, Verdugo scored, Turner to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Verdugo doubled to left, Reyes scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Fair odds
- HOU -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +40 Elo | HOU 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 35–2913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–2 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.