Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner singled to center, Abreu scored and Devers scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 8Duvall homered to left (362 feet).1–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 7Singleton doubled to right, Diaz scored and McCormick scored.0–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 7McCormick grounded into fielder's choice to second, Tucker scored, Diaz third.0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 7Diaz singled to right, Bregman scored, Tucker to second, Tucker safe at third and Diaz to second on throwing error by right fielder Abreu.0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Maldonado sacrificed to catcher, Dubón scored, Peña to third.0–3
- 1Tucker homered to right (391 feet), Bregman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +46 Elo | HOU 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 34–2914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.