Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peralta hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Turner grounded into fielder's choice to third, Devers scored on throwing error by third baseman Muncy, Turner to second, Verdugo out at third.6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Muncy doubled to right, Betts scored and Freeman scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Freeman doubled to center, Busch scored, Betts to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Hernández singled to center, Smith scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Muncy grounded out to first, Freeman scored, Smith to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Smith doubled to left, Betts scored, Freeman to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Story homered to left (377 feet), Casas scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Verdugo homered to right center (391 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -100
- BOS +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.2 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −4 | LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +19 Elo | LAD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–27 | Road vs home | 35–2810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.