Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duvall homered to left center (411 feet).7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Turner homered to center (417 feet).7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8Rosario grounded into fielder's choice to third, Betts scored, Freeman out at second.7–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Betts singled to center, Rojas scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Outman singled to right, Rosario scored, Outman to second.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Casas homered to left (319 feet), Duvall scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Betts homered to left (364 feet), Barnes scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Muncy singled to left, Freeman scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Outman homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -101
- BOS +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.4 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | LAD: Caleb Ferguson: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +29 Elo | LAD 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 5th of 3036–28 | Road vs home | 36–2911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.