Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Smith homered to left (393 feet).1–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 6Betts homered to left center (428 feet).1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Outman sacrificed into double play, center to third, Muncy scored, Peralta thrown out at third.1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Carroll homered to center (400 feet).1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Taylor doubled to left, Outman scored on error, Taylor safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Ahmed.0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Peralta singled to right, Muncy scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Rojas singled to center, Taylor scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Heyward doubled to center, Muncy scored and Peralta scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Peralta doubled to right, Betts scored, Muncy to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- ARI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +22 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +81 Elo | LAD 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–31 | Road vs home | 44–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 5–6 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.