Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Outman singled to left, Peralta scored, Heyward to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Outman homered to right (375 feet).4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Heyward homered to right (399 feet), Peralta scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Moreno homered to right center (383 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Thomas scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Moreno doubled to left, Walker scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Muncy homered to right center (392 feet), Smith scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Freeman homered to right (384 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -125
- ARI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +62 Elo | LAD 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 43–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 5–5 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.