Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-3
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Ozuna singled to left, Riley scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Castro grounded out to first, Goodman scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Murphy singled to right, Rosario scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Ozuna homered to right (395 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 6.5 – 5.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +3 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +122 Elo | ATL 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3041–23 | Road vs home | 28–3424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 5–0 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.