Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodgers grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Díaz scored, Jones out at second.4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Díaz doubled to left, McMahon scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Santander doubled to left, Westburg scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Hays grounded out to shortstop, Mountcastle scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Mountcastle doubled to left, Santander scored and Henderson scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Urías grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hays scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Tovar grounded out to second, B. Doyle scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Blackmon singled to right, Toglia scored, B. Doyle to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 71%
- Fair odds
- BAL -153
- COL +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 5.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +16 | COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +151 Elo | BAL 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–47 | Road vs home | 39–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.