Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson homered to right (374 feet), Hays scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Hays homered to right center (371 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Tovar homered to right center (392 feet), Blackmon scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Trejo hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Díaz doubled to left, Blackmon scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Henderson hit sacrifice fly to center, Santander scored, Hays to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Mountcastle homered to right (361 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 68%
- Fair odds
- BAL -150
- COL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 5.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +12 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +133 Elo | BAL 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–46 | Road vs home | 38–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.