Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Karl KauffmannPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. scored on error, Riley safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Toglia.14–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–4
- 9Acuña Jr. doubled to left, Arcia scored, Harris II scored and Pillar scored.13–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–4
- 9Pillar reached on infield single to third, Ozuna scored, Arcia to second.10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Arcia singled to right, Murphy scored.9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Murphy doubled to left, Olson scored, Ozuna thrown out at home.8–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Ozuna singled to right, Riley scored, Olson to second.7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 7Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Pillar hit sacrifice fly to left, Murphy scored, Arcia to second.5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5McMahon hit sacrifice fly to left, Blackmon scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Tovar singled to right, Toglia scored, Blackmon to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -125
- COL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 6.4 – 5.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +5 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +95 Elo | ATL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3040–23 | Road vs home | 28–3324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 4–0 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.