Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz grounded out to third, Goodman scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8O'Hearn homered to right (406 feet), Mullins scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Goodman singled to center, McMahon scored, Jones to second.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Mullins homered to right (341 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Toglia homered to right (373 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Rodgers singled to right, Tovar scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 65%
- Fair odds
- BAL -148
- COL +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 5.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −14 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +105 Elo | BAL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–48 | Road vs home | 40–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–2 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.