Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Darius VinesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Alan TrejoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Trejo homered to center (430 feet).7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Goodman hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Harris II reached on infield single to pitcher, Pillar scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 16–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Arcia homered to left center (413 feet), d'Arnaud scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Ozuna homered to left (443 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4d'Arnaud grounded out to third, Olson scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Ozuna grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Riley scored on error, Olson safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Tovar, Ozuna second, Olson safe at third on error.2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Tovar singled to center, Trejo scored, Blackmon to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pillar homered to center (443 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 65%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- COL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 6.2 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | ATL: Darius Vines (no track record yet) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +107 Elo | ATL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 1st of 3042–23 | Road vs home | 28–3524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 6–0 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.