Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Dodgers- Kolten WongBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wong homered to right (381 feet), Outman scored and Rojas scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 8Rosario singled to left, Ozuna scored, d'Arnaud to second.6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Ozuna singled to right, Albies scored, Riley to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Riley doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Ozuna homered to center (413 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to center (418 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2d'Arnaud homered to left (387 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 49%
- Fair odds
- LAD -105
- ATL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.0 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +6 Elo | ATL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 3044–23 | Road vs home | 46–221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.