Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy homered to right (386 feet).8–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–6
- 7Betts homered to left (371 feet).8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Busch homered to right (356 feet).8–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 6Harris II singled to center, Lopez scored, Acuña Jr. to third.8–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 17–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 5Betts homered to right (367 feet), Heyward scored and Outman scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 37–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Harris II homered to center (421 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 2Riley homered to center (407 feet).6–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 2Acuña Jr. homered to left center (429 feet), Murphy scored, Arcia scored and Lopez scored.5–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 49%
- Fair odds
- LAD -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −5 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +10 Elo | ATL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–23 | Road vs home | 46–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–2 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.