Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.2 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Joey WendleBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Outman homered to right (366 feet), Heyward scored.4–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–11
- 9Peralta scored on error, Heyward safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Wendle.2–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 7Gurriel doubled to right, Wendle scored.1–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 7Wendle doubled to center, Sánchez scored.1–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 5Arraez doubled to center, Wendle scored and Stallings scored.1–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 5Wendle reached on infield single to second, Edwards scored, Stallings to second.1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Sánchez homered to right center (441 feet).1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to left (372 feet), Arraez scored and Burger scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Wendle homered to right (385 feet), Stallings scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Heyward homered to right center (424 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +7 | LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: JT Chargois: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +27 Elo | LAD 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–29 | Road vs home | 39–3111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–2 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.