Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Outman singled to center, Heyward scored, Taylor to second.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Olson homered to right (397 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Betts singled to left, Rojas scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Rojas doubled to center, Outman scored on error, Rojas safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Arcia.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 48%
- Fair odds
- LAD -103
- ATL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +1 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +17 Elo | ATL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 1st of 3046–23 | Road vs home | 46–243rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.