Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right (436 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8De La Cruz homered to left (395 feet), Burger scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Taylor homered to left (405 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Bell homered to center (429 feet), Soler scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Burger homered to left (368 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Smith singled to center, Rojas scored, Freeman to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Freeman singled to left, Outman scored, Rojas to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -108
- MIA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 4.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −3 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 1.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +76 Elo | LAD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–28 | Road vs home | 38–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.