Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting1-3
- Braxton GarrettPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor homered to center (426 feet), Smith scored and Muncy scored.10–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 6Taylor doubled to left, Muncy scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Rosario singled to left, Freeman scored and Smith scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Freeman doubled, Betts scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Hernández hit a ground rule double, Muncy scored, Taylor to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Taylor singled to center, Rosario scored, Muncy to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Smith singled to center, Rojas scored, Freeman to second, Betts to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 4.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | LAD: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +39 Elo | LAD 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–30 | Road vs home | 40–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–3 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.