San Diego Padres at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Batten singled to right, Campusano scored, Profar to second.5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Maldonado singled to left, J. Abreu scored, Dubón to second, Brantley to third.4–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5J. Abreu singled to center, Tucker scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Tucker hit a ground rule double, Alvarez scored and Peña scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Alvarez hit a ground rule double, Altuve scored, Peña to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Dubón grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, J. Abreu scored, Brantley out at second.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Grisham doubled to right, Batten scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Profar homered to right (368 feet), Campusano scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Campusano singled to center, Soto scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Alvarez homered to right center (407 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -122
- SD +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.0 – 5.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −7 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +32 Elo | HOU 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3028–39 | Road vs home | 35–3519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.