San Diego Padres at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grisham homered to left center (377 feet), Carpenter scored and Batten scored.11–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Machado doubled to center, Kim scored and Soto scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6J. Abreu hit a ground rule double, Alvarez scored, Bregman to third.6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Soto doubled to right, Kim scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Bogaerts homered to left (367 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Kim singled to right, Batten scored and Grisham scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Grisham singled to left, Campusano scored, Batten to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Campusano singled to center, Machado scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Alvarez singled to right, Peña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Fair odds
- HOU -123
- SD +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 5.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −1 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +30 Elo | HOU 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–39 | Road vs home | 35–3418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.