New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peraza doubled to left, Wells scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Wells doubled to center, Volpe scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 9Torres homered to left center (435 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Domínguez homered to right (358 feet), LeMahieu scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6LeMahieu doubled to center, Cabrera scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Tucker hit sacrifice fly to left, Bregman scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Fair odds
- HOU -121
- NYY +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | NYY: Michael King: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +40 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 35–3316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 4–2 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.