New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Michael BrantleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pereira singled to center, Domínguez scored, Volpe to second.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Wells hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Diaz homered to right center (374 feet), Brantley scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Judge homered to right center (428 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Brantley homered to right (345 feet), J. Abreu scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Cabrera walked, Volpe scored, Peraza to second, Pereira to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 42–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Peraza singled to center, Stanton scored, Pereira to second, Volpe to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- NYY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +59 Elo | HOU 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3030–36 | Road vs home | 35–3215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.