Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting5-6, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Miguel CabreraBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKinstry homered to right (435 feet).17–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play17–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 117–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking17–3
- 9Alvarez hit a ground rule double, Diaz scored and Altuve scored, Julks to third.17–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play17–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 315–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 217–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul15–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 115–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking15–3
- 9Julks singled to left, Peña scored, Altuve to second, Diaz to third.15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–3
- 8Cabrera homered to left center (391 feet), Greene scored and Torkelson scored.14–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 114–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul14–0
- 8Diaz homered to left (424 feet), Dubón scored.14–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 8Dubón singled to right, Peña scored.12–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–0
- 8Peña tripled to center, Tucker scored, McCormick scored and Singleton scored.11–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 8McCormick singled to center, Alvarez scored, Tucker to third.8–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 7Maldonado homered to left (363 feet).7–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Dubón homered to left (360 feet).6–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −12 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +49 Elo | HOU 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3038–27 | Road vs home | 28–3625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.