Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Candelario scored, Morel to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Gomes singled to left, Happ scored, Gomes out stretching at second, Suzuki to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Carpenter homered to right center (381 feet), Ibañez scored, Rogers scored and Baddoo scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Madrigal singled to left, Gomes scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Bellinger singled to center, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Candelario doubled to left, Suzuki scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -103
- CHC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 5.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +10 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +9 Elo | CHC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 27–3425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.