Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vierling singled to left, Torkelson scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 9Happ grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Madrigal scored, Tauchman out at second.7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 9Madrigal doubled to left, Mastrobuoni scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8McKinstry singled to left, Vierling scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Báez doubled to right, Torkelson scored and Carpenter scored, Vierling to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Bellinger singled to right, Happ scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Carpenter homered to right center (404 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Torkelson homered to left (418 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Suzuki homered to left center (403 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Madrigal doubled to left, Candelario scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Suzuki scored on Faedo wild pitch, Candelario to second.2–0
- 2Suzuki scored on Faedo wild pitch, Candelario to second on wild pitch by Faedo.2–0
- 2Candelario grounded into fielder's choice to first, Swanson scored, Suzuki to second, Suzuki safe at third on fielding error by first baseman Torkelson.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- CHC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −8 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +30 Elo | CHC 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 26–3325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.