Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carpenter hit by pitch, McKinstry scored, Torkelson to second, Vierling to third.6–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 26–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 5Swanson singled to right, Tauchman scored and Bellinger scored.6–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 4Ibañez homered to left (402 feet), McKinstry scored and Vierling scored.4–7
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 34–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Vierling reached on infield single to third, P. Meadows scored on throwing error by third baseman Candelario, McKinstry safe at third on error.4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 4Candelario homered to right (405 feet), Suzuki scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Swanson homered to left (389 feet), Happ scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to center, P. Meadows scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Carpenter singled to right, Torkelson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Ibañez homered to left center (423 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Fair odds
- DET -103
- CHC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 5.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +5 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +1 Elo | CHC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 26–3426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.