Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9P. Meadows homered to right, McKinstry scored and Báez scored.1–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 9Báez singled to center, Kelly scored, Báez to second, McKinstry to third.1–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Altuve reached on infield single to third, J. Abreu scored, Peña to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -101
- DET +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −9 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3037–26 | Road vs home | 27–3526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.