Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Abreu singled to left, McCormick scored.9–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 8McCormick singled to right, Bregman scored and Tucker scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Alvarez singled to center, Bregman scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Bregman doubled to right, Altuve scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Greene hit sacrifice fly to left, McKinstry scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5J. Abreu singled to right, Tucker scored, Diaz to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Bregman homered to left (381 feet), Altuve scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4P. Meadows singled to right, Carpenter scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bregman doubled to center, Altuve scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- HOU +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +18 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET 0 Elo | DET 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3037–27 | Road vs home | 28–3525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.