New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Judge homered to center (426 feet).6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Tucker doubled to left, Bregman scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Stanton homered to left (433 feet), Judge scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2J. Abreu homered to left center (409 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Domínguez homered to left (360 feet), Stanton scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1LeMahieu homered to right (357 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -126
- NYY +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +8 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +76 Elo | HOU 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 35–3114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.