Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Michael BrantleyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting3-4
- Kutter CrawfordPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Devers grounded out to shortstop, Rafaela scored.7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 6Turner grounded out to shortstop, Wong scored, Rafaela to third.7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Rafaela doubled to left, Casas scored, Wong to third.7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Urías scored on error, Wong safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Peña.7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 4Bregman doubled to left, Peña scored, Maldonado to third.7–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Brantley singled to right, Bregman scored and Tucker scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3McCormick grounded out to first, Altuve scored, Tucker to second, Bregman to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Maldonado singled to left, Peña scored, Maldonado out stretching at second.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Peña hit a ground rule double, Brantley scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Singleton grounded out to first, McCormick scored, Brantley to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.2 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −7 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +3 Elo | HOU 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3041–27 | Road vs home | 36–3215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.