Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7J. Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bregman scored, Tucker out at second, Alvarez to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Duvall homered to left (389 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Dubón doubled to center, Diaz scored and J. Abreu scored, Dubón to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Bregman singled to left, Dubón scored, Altuve to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Turner grounded into fielder's choice to third, Verdugo scored on error, Devers to second, Devers safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Bregman.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Alvarez homered to right (334 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bregman homered to left center (403 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.4 – 5.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +12 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +18 Elo | BOS 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3040–27 | Road vs home | 36–3112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.