Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting4-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wong singled to center, Yoshida scored, Story to third.13–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 213–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 113–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–4
- 8Altuve homered to left center (420 feet), Maldonado scored.13–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–4
- 7McCormick hit sacrifice fly to right, Alvarez scored, Tucker to third.11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 7J. Abreu singled to right, Bregman scored, Tucker to second, Alvarez to third.10–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 29–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 6Diaz reached on infield single to first, Tucker scored, McCormick to second, J. Abreu to third.9–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 6Alvarez homered to right center (396 feet), Altuve scored and Bregman scored.8–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Altuve tripled to right, Diaz scored and Peña scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Duvall homered to left center (392 feet), Yoshida scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Altuve scored on Sale wild pitch, Alvarez to second on wild pitch by Sale.3–2
- 5Altuve scored on Sale wild pitch, Alvarez to second on wild pitch by Sale.3–2
- 3Alvarez singled to right, Altuve scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2J. Abreu homered to center (428 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- HOU +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.2 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +19 Elo | BOS 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3039–27 | Road vs home | 36–3011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.