New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9P. Meadows singled to center, Torkelson scored and McKinstry scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 9Volpe homered to left (382 feet).4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Judge scored, Stanton to second on passed ball by Kelly, Torres to third on passed ball by Kelly.3–0
- 6Judge scored, Stanton to second on passed ball by Kelly, Torres to third on passed ball by Kelly.3–0
- 5Higashioka homered to left center (362 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Torres homered to left center (454 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -108
- NYY +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +7 | NYY: Michael King: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +6 Elo | DET 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–35 | Road vs home | 28–3827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.