New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baddoo homered to right (364 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 8Cabrera singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Torres homered to left (430 feet).3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 7Judge homered to left (384 feet).2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Torres doubled to center, Judge scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +19 Elo | DET 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–35 | Road vs home | 28–3726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.