New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Torkelson homered to left (402 feet).6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Stanton homered to center (425 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Torres homered to right center (372 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Rogers homered to right center (397 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pereira singled to left, Volpe scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2LeMahieu homered to left center (411 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Pereira hit by pitch, Stanton scored, Bader to second, Volpe to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Stanton singled to right, Torres scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Fair odds
- DET -106
- NYY +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +12 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Brendan White: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +1 Elo | DET 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 28–3928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.