New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Zack ShortBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Short grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Carpenter scored on throwing error by second baseman Torres, P. Meadows out at second.3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Volpe homered to right (341 feet), Cabrera scored and Torres scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Carpenter singled to center, Greene scored, Ibañez to third.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Greene singled to right, Kelly scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Short homered to left (369 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +16 Elo | NYY 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3029–35 | Road vs home | 28–4028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.