Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-3
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pedro AvilaPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, Bogaerts scored.0–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Batten grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bogaerts scored, Carpenter to second, Campusano out at third.0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Campusano singled to center, Machado scored and Soto scored, Bogaerts to second.0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Bogaerts singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second, Soto to third.0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Campusano grounded into fielder's choice to second, Machado scored and Bogaerts scored on throwing error by second baseman Stott, Campusano out at second.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Tatis Jr. homered to left center (431 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- SD +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −12 | PHI: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Pedro Avila: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +12 Elo | PHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3035–34 | Road vs home | 36–3519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.