Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Mark CanhaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner singled to center, Sosa scored, Schwarber to second.4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Realmuto homered to center (443 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Bohm homered to left center (388 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Castellanos doubled to left, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Canha homered to right center (356 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Contreras homered to center (410 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -112
- PHI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 5.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3033–34 | Road vs home | 40–277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.