Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani doubled to center, Schanuel scored.7–12
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–12
- 9Schanuel singled to left, Grichuk scored on throwing error by left fielder Marsh, Schanuel to second.6–12
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–12
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–12
- 8Turner homered to center (403 feet).5–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–11
- 7Stott homered to right (396 feet), Realmuto scored.5–11
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–11
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 7Realmuto singled to right, Bohm scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 15–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Grichuk homered to left (366 feet).5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 6Turner tripled to left, Stott scored and Rojas scored.4–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Rojas sacrificed, Realmuto scored, Stott to second.4–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Fair odds
- PHI -125
- LAA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +73 Elo | PHI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 40–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.