Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marsh singled to right, Bohm scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 7Moniak singled to left, Drury scored, Rengifo to second.4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Turner homered to left center (398 feet), Cave scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Harper homered to right center (429 feet), Turner scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Drury singled to center, Grichuk scored and Schanuel scored, Ohtani to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Turner homered to left center (374 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Rengifo singled to right, Schanuel scored, Ohtani to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Fair odds
- PHI -125
- LAA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | LAA: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +76 Elo | PHI 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 39–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.