Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Drury homered to right center (372 feet), Schanuel scored.10–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 9Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to center, Cabbage scored.8–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–8
- 8Harper homered to right center (381 feet), Schwarber scored.7–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Renfroe singled to right, Drury scored and Ohtani scored, Grichuk to third.7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Turner homered to left center (416 feet), Marsh scored and Stubbs scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 5Castellanos singled to right, Turner scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Drury singled to center, Schanuel scored, Ohtani thrown out at third.5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Ohtani singled to right, Velazquez scored, Schanuel to second.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 5Velazquez sacrificed, Renfroe scored, Velazquez to first on fielding error by pitcher Sánchez, Escobar to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Stubbs grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bohm scored, Rojas out at second, Marsh to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Rojas singled to center, Stott scored, Marsh to second, Bohm to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- LAA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +84 Elo | PHI 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 41–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.