Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras scored, Santana scored and Taylor scored on error, Miller safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Bohm.5–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Taylor walked, Yelich scored, Santana to second, Contreras to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 45–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Turner homered to left (362 feet), Realmuto scored and Marsh scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Marsh singled to center, Bohm scored, Realmuto to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Adames homered to center (430 feet), Contreras scored and Santana scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right (422 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL 0 Elo | MIL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3033–32 | Road vs home | 38–277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.