Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Mark CanhaBatting2-4
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 1Bellinger grounded out to second, Hoerner scored, Happ to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Fair odds
- CHC -108
- MIL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.1 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +27 Elo | CHC 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 8th of 3036–30 | Road vs home | 35–3113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 5–3 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.