Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching2.1 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suzuki doubled to left, Bellinger scored and Happ scored.10–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 7Reynolds doubled to right, Hayes scored and Williams scored.8–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 7Hayes singled to right, Suwinski scored, Williams to second.8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7Williams singled to left, Palacios scored, Suwinski to third.8–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 7Peguero hit sacrifice fly to center, Joe scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Candelario singled to left, Suzuki scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Suzuki tripled to left, Bellinger scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Bellinger singled to center, Happ scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Happ doubled to right, Swanson scored and Tauchman scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Bellinger grounded out to second, Tauchman scored, Happ to second, Swanson to third.3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- CHC +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.1 – 5.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | CHC: Jordan Wicks (no track record yet) · PIT: Colin Selby (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +25 Elo | CHC 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 32–3422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 7–1 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.